Portfolio restructure

Seems like the market is undergoing short term consolidation. Immediate support is at 20day MA with next support at 50 day MA. With all the optimism going on, i feel this short downtrend is only technical and will not fall below the 50 day. 

Everyone thinks the market bull is here to stay for 2013 and even continue to 2014, but i feel we should be cautiously and buying only into value.

Alot of optimism have been priced in lately. So i suspect that even with all the liquidity going around, the market uptrend for this year will not be stellar.

 Some target stocks i have in mind:

IndoAgri:

Technically seems to be converging, temporary support at S$1.28. Value buy at S$1.25.

Q3 financials revealed that balance sheet and income statement is okay. Don't think there will be much changes when results are released on 27th feb. Majority owner increased stake by 2% to 71%. Firm is owned largely by Salim family. Price should not drastically fall without any action from the family. Dividend is negligible though.

Noble:

I have been watching this stock over the past few months and noticed it finally went down. My inital target a few weeks back put target entry price at S$1.18. Support and current price seems to be established at 50 day MA (S$1.175). FY12 saw noble trading between the range of S$1.05 to S$1.355. 3 resistance levels to FY12 upside of S$1.355 with next support at S$1.1 and strong support at S$1.05. Putting this in % terms, from current price, potential max upside =  15.3%, potential downside = 11.9%. Entering now seems okay to me. Lowest analyst forecast stands at S$0.99.

Financials are out 28th Feb, 14 May, 8 Aug, 12 Nov. Overall FY12 Net income will probably be slightly better than FY11. High debt utilisation of approx USD4.5bn against market cap of 7.72bn (69.9%). Firm seems to be gearing up over the years. High intangible assets of USD820m. FY11 financials revealed that 22.6% of revenue was from agriculture (cotton, coffee, cocoa, soybean, oilseed, grain, sugar) and wheat, 63.8% from energy (coal) and 13.5% from metals, minerals and ores (iron ore). Firm does not produce the commodities, it is a supply chain manager. Let's do a little research given that 63.8% of its revenue is from Coal. Noble exports coal to China and the risks involve in this is that the Government is going in the renewable energy direction. It has also increased its coal production capacity (despite some accidents reported that shut down mines). I feel in the next 2-3 years demand should still be there, so that's okay. Smallish dividend yield of 1.74%.

NOL

Entered at 1.12. Current price seems to have consolidated at S$1.24. I remain bullish on its long term outlook. Many think that shipping is still facing an oversupply, however, i believed it has already been priced (NOL lowest point S$1.0). Firm is still not making profits but may just squeeze out a small turn around in FY13. Has exposure to China's recovery as it ploughs on the trans pacific route between USA and China. USA economy seems to be picking up lately too. Might pick up more of the stock at this price.

Wilmar
Entered at S$3.16, guess i missed the high of S$3.9. Support level of S$3.59 was tested on Friday. I suspect it will consolidate around this level given the U shaped recovery it exhibited earlier. Next support at S$3.4 (5.5% downside), next resistance at S$3.76 (4.7% upside). Smallish dividend yield of 1.7%.

I feel this stock has long run potential as well. Value is alright but given the price of S$3.59 i think i'll invest in the other 3 stocks for diversification benefits. The market might fall in the short run, but i believe over the next 3 to 12 months the stocks will be higher than the current price.