Market Timing

Commodity stocks Wilmar and NOL seem to be getting battered over the last 2 days.

Bloomberg came up with an article about palm oil prices which may give some insight into the palm oil profitability this year:

Bloomberg Palm oil

I'm glad i thought twice about buying more stocks a couple of weeks ago.

Wilmar

A mini head and shower has developed with Wilmar closing at S$3.5 today. A break below this level might see price fall to the next critical support at S$3.36. If it breaks this level then Wilmar is going downtrend again.

I will monitor over the next few days to see how it goes.

NOL

OCBC had given a hold call despite disappointing results, but mentioned that they are confident about the long term prospects, well me too. For now, there seems to be some support at the 100 day MA, support is at S$1.15.

I will monitor over the next few days to see how it goes.

I guess what i learn from this is market timing. While i may have had the fortune to spot the bottom in November, i need to be able to better identify exits. One key indicator is when analyst start to write really bullish reports and i start to question the sustainability. 

Note to myself- as i'm mostly invested in commodity stocks, these stocks move really quickly and with more impact than the general market. A proper exit strategy must be in placed with the discipline to follow through.

After we missed the peak it always feels like we just wanna hang on a little longer for more upside only to realise later, we missed it.