There's just a nagging feeling i get that the current market bull run is being powered by certain select sectors and not across the board. In my opinion, economic fundamentals still hasn't seen much improvement from last year and to name a few points off my head:
(1) The europe crisis is still going on
(2) America's slight recovery isn't worth mentioning
(3) The fed is still printing money
(4) And most importantly the recent fall in commodity prices
I could probably do some investigate work and elaborate more on those points, but for now my gut feeling will suffice.
Also, there's the old adage "Sell in May and go away" which has proven true for the last 2 years. I'm not saying that i put weight in the saying just based on those words, but with a correction technically and fundamentally due, it might be wise to just stick to the adage.
One of the stocks i'm considering an exit from is Singtel:
I had bought this stock at S$3.21 in September 2012 after Temasek had sold away their share. It's had a good run up since December. Last week, the stock had broke its resistance at S$3.66 and currently stands at S$3.76. I'll keep a look out for an opportunity to sell it and watch for a fall towards the resistance turned support.
Just a couple of other stocks i was looking at, with possible short-term rebound:
NOL
NOL is a stock that sees itself trading within a range of S$1.0 - S$1.23. I say S$1.23 because i do not think in the near future it will hit the recent high of S$1.34. The downside is supported by Temasek and it's good long term prospects, while the upside is capped by losses experienced since 2010.
At any rate, the current price of S$1.11 might see some technical upside to S$1.16. While the transaction cost and risk doesn't seem to justify entering this stock just for this short term upside, long term investors can perhaps consider entering at this price and averaging down in the medium term.
Swiber
Swiber has seen decent growth since Aug 2011. The recent offshore play and increased revenue has also supported its gradual upward momentum. At face value, current price of S$0.60 seem like a good technical entry point.
Long term buyers should look into whether the growth can be sustained. 2 years of growth is a short time to make a call that it is a growth stock. The nature of the firm's earnings is lumpy after all, with revenue coming in inconsistently from different regions. This is just a downside risk to keep in mind. More research needs to be done for long term holding.
Raffles Education Corp Ltd
I had written a financial analysis on this company not too long ago in February 2013. It can be found here: Raffles Education FA. Was just re-looking at the chart today to update myself.
The stock broke support of S$0.36 earlier this month and currently stands at S$0.325.
Upon further scrutiny of the chart, i realised something and calculated that the last 3 major acquisitions of the stock (12-13/09/2013 & 26/12/2012) which had caused the stock to substantially rise, had a share-weighted average price of S$0.332.
Assuming that the major acquirers are still supporting the price, then the current price of S$0.325 might be a bargain given that we may expect support from them. Of course, this is just my speculation. Personally if i were to buy this stock, it would be a small portion of my portfolio, not exceeding 10%.
